I still remember watching that Rain or Shine game last season - you know, the one where everyone had basically written them off after their shaky performance down the stretch. They were stumbling through the elimination round like someone trying to walk on ice, yet somehow they clawed their way to exactly seven wins and squeezed into the top six of the PBA Commissioner's Cup. That kind of turnaround got me thinking about the most incredible 3-0 comebacks in NBA history, those moments when teams looked completely finished only to rise from what should have been certain defeat.
Let me take you back to 2003, when Tracy McGrady famously declared "It feels good to get in the second round" after his Orlando Magic went up 3-0 against the Detroit Pistons. Everyone thought the series was over - I certainly did, and I've been watching basketball since the 90s. But then something shifted. The Pistons, led by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace, decided they weren't ready to go home. They won Game 4 by 15 points, Game 5 by 31, and suddenly what looked like a formality became a real series. I remember watching Game 6 thinking there's no way they could complete this, but they did, and then they finished the job in Game 7. That Pistons team taught me never to count out a defensive-minded squad, no matter how dire the situation looks.
The statistics around 3-0 comebacks are what make them so special - before 2023, NBA teams had gone up 3-0 in a best-of-seven series exactly 146 times, and only 3 of those teams managed to complete the comeback. That's about a 2% success rate, which makes hitting a half-court shot look easy by comparison. But what's fascinating is that two of those three historic comebacks happened relatively recently, which makes me wonder if modern basketball's three-point shooting and pace create more volatility in series.
Speaking of recent history, I have to talk about the 2020 Denver Nuggets because honestly, I've never seen anything like Jamal Murray during that bubble run. Down 3-0 to the Utah Jazz, the Nuggets looked completely cooked - their defense was struggling to contain Donovan Mitchell, who dropped 57 points in Game 1. But Murray matched him shot for shot, scoring 50 in Game 4 and 42 in Game 6. What impressed me most wasn't just the scoring though - it was the mental toughness. Playing in that empty arena during the pandemic, with no crowd energy to feed off, they had to generate their own momentum. When they completed that comeback and then went on to do it again against the Clippers in the next round, I realized I was watching something truly special in NBA history.
The most recent example, of course, is last season's Celtics-Heat series. As a basketball fan, I have to admit I turned off Game 3 thinking the series was over. Miami looked unstoppable, and Boston seemed completely out of sorts. But then Jayson Tatum decided to put the team on his back, and what followed was a masterclass in refusing to quit. The Celtics won Game 4 by 17, Game 5 by 13, and Game 6 by just 4 points in a nail-biter that had me jumping off my couch. When they forced Game 7, I thought for sure they'd make history, but Miami's shooters got hot at the right time. Even though they fell short, that near-comeback showed how quickly momentum can shift in basketball.
What all these teams have in common, including that Rain or Shine squad I mentioned earlier, is an almost irrational belief in themselves when everyone else has given up. They find one win, then another, and suddenly the pressure completely flips to the team that was up 3-0. I've noticed that in most of these scenarios, there's usually one player who elevates their game to another level - like Murray's scoring explosions or Tatum's all-around dominance. But it's never just one guy - role players inevitably step up in unexpected ways, hitting big shots or making defensive stops that change the series.
The psychology of these comebacks fascinates me more than anything. When you're down 3-0, the pressure's completely off - everyone expects you to lose, so you can play free and loose. Meanwhile, the team that's up starts pressing, missing shots they normally make, and overthinking everything. I've seen it happen time and again - that moment when a player on the leading team starts looking at the bench after a missed shot, wondering when the collapse began rather than just playing their game.
Looking at Rain or Shine's journey to seven wins despite their struggles reminds me that in basketball, as in life, it's not about how you start but how you finish. Those NBA teams that came back from 3-0 didn't do it through magic - they did it by winning one game at a time, by believing when nobody else did, and by making those small adjustments that slowly turn the tide. The next time I see a team go down 3-0, I'll remember these stories and probably not be so quick to count them out. After all, basketball has taught me that until that fourth win is secured, anything can happen.